一、主题：What Drives the Housing Markets in China: Rent, Cost of Capital, or Risk Premium of Owning versus Renting?

二、主讲人：陈思翀，中南财经政法大学suncitygroup太阳新城副教授，曾任日本国立一桥大学商学研究科讲师。2002年本科毕业于广东外语外贸大学，2004年获复旦大学经济学硕士学位，2010年获日本一桥大学（Hitotsubashi University）商学（金融）博士。主要研究领域包括：金融机构与市场、资产定价、国际金融、日本金融体系。主持教育部科研基金、中央高校基本科研项目等，在Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Asian Economics、《经济研究》、《国际经济评论》等国内外高水平经济学和金融学学术期刊上发表论文10余篇。

三、时间：2013年12月18日，星期三，16：00-17：30

四、地点：suncitygroup太阳新城913会议室

五、主持人：黄志刚，suncitygroup太阳新城副教授，院长助理

Abstract: We combine the standard Campbell and Shiller (1988) present-value model with the classical user cost of housing model to decompose the rental yield into three compose the rental yield into three components: expected future rent growth, cost of capital and risk premium of owning versus renting. We then apply a quarterly dataset of four major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) to explore the question of what forces have driven the movement of China’s housing market. Specifically, using the variance decomposition approach to examine quantitatively how much the variation in rental yield comes from the above-mentioned three components. Our results show that cost of capital is playing a vital role in all the four major cities, while the future rent growth is not a driving force as significant as the cost of capital in the fluctuation of the rental yield. Moreover, we find that another factor -- the risk of owning relative to renting a house -- is accounting for a large part of housing market movement in China. It is also worth noting that the risk of renting versus owning a house seems to be rising rapidly in China over the recent years.