一、主题：A New Dilemma：Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies

二、主讲人：余昌华，北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授。本科毕业于中国人民大学，在北京大学获得经济学硕士学位，在英属哥伦比亚大学获得经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为国际金融、货币政策、金融市场与宏观经济，研究成果在Journal of International Economics等国际高水平学术期刊发表。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目、教育部留学归国人员科研启动项目等科研项目。

三、时间：2016年10月26日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地点：主教楼913会议室

五、主持人：苟琴，suncitygroup太阳新城助理教授

论文摘要：The dangers of high capital flow volatility and sudden stops have led economists to promote the use of capital controls as an addition to monetary policy in emerging market economies. This paper studies the benefits of capital controls and monetary policy in an open economy with financial frictions, nominal rigidities, and sudden stops. We focus on a time-consistent policy equilibrium. We find that during a crisis, an optimal monetary policy should sharply diverge from price stability. Without commitment, policymakers will also tax capital inflows in a crisis. But this is not optimal from an ex-ante social welfare perspective. An outcome without capital inflow taxes, using optimal monetary policy alone to respond to crises, is superior in welfare terms, but not time-consistent. If policy commitment were in place, capital inflows would be subsidized during crises. We also show that an optimal policy will never involve macro-prudential capital inflow taxes as a precaution against the risk of future crises (whether or not commitment is available).